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Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty

<p><b>An original account of</b> <b>willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods</b></p> <p>Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public.</p> <p><i>Willful Ignorance</i> <i>The Mismeasure of Uncertainty</i> exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and

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Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty

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